The Washington Post's Jennifer Rubin
offers a few:
A word about the latest national poll from Battleground Poll/Politico showing the race in a statistical dead heat. As a poll of likely voters, it is in line with daily tracking polls from Rasmussen and Gallup. It’s a far cry from CNN and Fox polls of registered voters in which the Democratic portion of the electorate was much higher. The Romney team’s own polling analysis, not surprisingly, mirrors the surveys from Battleground /Rasmussen/Gallup. The pro-Obama media has leapt on the CNN and Fox polls, spinning a storyline that Romney is in all sorts of trouble.
Who’s right? We don’t know and won’t know until we get closer to the election and all the polls start using a likely voter screen. In the meantime, this once again demonstrates the fallacy (and laziness) in spinning “analysis” based solely on polls that may have nothing to do with the reality of the race. For now, watch local polls and coverage in battleground states and check the split in the Democratic-Republican electorate used by pollsters. And then forget it. All of the data will change once the impact of the Ryan selection is felt and both sides hold their conventions. Unfortunately, you’re not going to find such sober restraint in most of the campaign coverage.
No doubt Rubin felt restrained from reminding how
untrustworthy her own newspaper has been when it comes to polls. But be that as it may, commentator Hugh Hewitt had similar advice last week in targeting a
horribly weighted New York Times/CBS/Quinnipiac poll:
To get results useful to predicting how a state will go in the fall, the sample must reflect some "best guess" about turnout. As confirmed on my show last week by Quinnipiac pollster Peter Brown, these pollsters don't do that.
RealClearPolitics' Sean Trende argues it is too early to trust state polling anyway, and perhaps he's right. But no one should be calling a state red or blue based on such ludicrous indifference to likely turnout.
As many people consider this to be the most important election in our lifetimes, it's important that people remain well informed from accurate sources and not be duped by duplicitous ones. The polls I'm paying attention to this cycle are the daily tracking polls from
Rasmussen and
Gallup, two independent polling firms with the best track records for being right. Most media polls tend to be garbage, as do political polls from most universities and quasi-advocacy groups such as Pew. For an excellent explanation of this, read "
Mobocracy: How the Media's Obsession with Polling Twists the News, Alters Elections, and Undermines Democracy," by Matthew Robinson.
Look, if you believe that Democrats will enjoy a 10-percentage-point edge in turnout this November as
CNN recently suggested with its poll, then you're welcome to your fant .. er, opinion. But if you're in a media organization, understand that most of us have figured out the game and refuse to play.